Photo: SuperAgronom.com
The Ukrainian Grain Association forecasts the harvest of grain and oilseed crops in 2026 to be at the level of 84.6 million tons. The estimate has been increased by 1 million tons compared to the previous forecast due to favorable weather conditions and sufficient moisture, and consequently, a better expected yield of early crops.
The published forecast indicates that with such a harvest, exports in the new 2026/2027 season could potentially reach almost 52 million tons (last season’s exports were 41.1 million tons).
“However, this optimistic scenario is only possible if Ukraine’s logistical problems are resolved, namely if the operation of Ukraine’s deep-water ports of Greater Odesa is fully restored and Russia’s constant bombings of Ukrainian transport infrastructure and energy facilities, as well as ships entering Ukrainian ports, cease,” emphasize UZA experts.
- The harvest of wheat in 2026 is estimated by UZA at 23.7 million tons (in 2025 — 22.5 million tons). Potential wheat exports in the 2025/2026 marketing year could reach 18 million tons (last season — 14 million tons).
- The harvest of barley in 2026, according to UZA’s estimate, will be 5.5 million tons (in 2025 — 4.9 million tons), and probable exports in the 2025/2026 marketing year could be expected at around 2.3 million tons (last season — 1.5 million tons).
- Expectations for this year’s corn harvest are good due to currently favorable weather conditions. According to UZA’s estimate, the corn harvest will be 32.1 million tons (in 2025 — 31.1 million tons), and potential exports in the new season could reach 27 million tons, but again, provided unimpeded logistics (last season — 21 million tons).
- The harvest of sunflower in 2026 can be expected at 13.3 million tons (in 2025 — 11.1 million tons). Traditionally, almost all sunflower will be processed in Ukraine — 13.5 million tons. Exports will not exceed 40 thousand tons.
- In 2026, the harvest of rapeseed may reach 3.5 million tons (in 2025 — 3.2 million tons), while exports in the 2025/2026 marketing year may only be 1.9 million tons; the rest will be processed in Ukraine.
- This year’s harvest of soybeans may amount to 4.6 million tons (in 2025 — 5 million tons). Potential exports in the 2025/2026 marketing year could be 2.2 million tons (last season — 2.7 million tons), and the remainder will be processed in Ukraine, as its export is hindered by legislative restrictions, similar to rapeseed.
Alla Husarova, SuperAgronom.com