The global demand for Ukrainian wheat remains steady, even though grain exports through the Greater Odesa ports have practically ceased due to escalating Russian attacks.
According to “UkrAgroConsult,” some export shipments are now being rerouted via the Danube ports, with subsequent loading from Constanța, Romania.
It is noted that the capacity of the Danube route is currently constrained. Due to a drop in water levels by approximately 1.5 meters, navigation is primarily feasible for vessels with shallow drafts, which limits the volume of grain transshipment.
“Despite these challenges, the market continues to enter into new export agreements. According to traders, on July 26th, a deal was confirmed for the supply of Ukrainian wheat with an 11.5% protein content from Izmail at a price of $262/ton CIF Alexandria,” the analysts add.
Market participants indicate that the Danube remains a significant alternative for exports, but due to limited throughput, low water levels, and higher logistical costs, it cannot fully replace the deep-water ports of Greater Odesa.
“The resumption of operations at the Black Sea ports remains the primary condition for restoring full export volumes of Ukrainian grain,” the experts conclude.