The Ukrainian barley market is under pressure due to the practical halt of export logistics. Following the cessation of vessel calls at Ukrainian ports and intensified Russian attacks on port infrastructure, demand for the grain has virtually disappeared, and procurement prices have sharply declined over the past week. This is reported by the Electronic Grain Exchange.
Ports are nearly ceasing operations
Starting from July 22nd, vessels have virtually stopped entering Ukrainian ports for loading. The reason for this was Russia’s massive assaults on the port infrastructure of the Odesa region, which led to the suspension of grain terminal operations and a sharp reduction in trade activity.
Over the last week, damage to five vessels has been officially confirmed, although according to market information, more than ten have been targeted. Some vessels, after sustaining damage, still managed to depart Ukrainian ports.
Barley prices have plummeted
The feed barley market, which already had limited demand, has been most affected by the logistical crisis.
Over the week, procurement prices at Black Sea ports have dropped by another 1000 UAH/ton and currently stand at:
- 6700–7000 UAH/ton, or
- $130–$140/ton delivered to Black Sea ports.
Following damage to a vessel sailing from Danube ports, prices in this direction have also fallen to 7500–8000 UAH/ton.
Alternative logistics are not yet functioning
Despite the search for new export routes, international traders have not yet managed to establish stable purchases of Ukrainian barley delivered by road or rail to the Romanian port of Constanța.
Currently, procurement prices at the border are:
- $125/ton DAP Vadul-Siret (Romanian direction);
- $130/ton DAP Mostyska (western border).
At domestic elevators, prices have fallen to 6000–6500 UAH/ton EXW, with the number of buyers significantly reduced due to uncertainty regarding further exports.
Malting plants are not rushing to purchase
An additional factor pressuring the market remains weak domestic demand.
Ukrainian malting enterprises have not yet begun active purchases of new-crop malting barley. They are stocked with last year’s produce until the end of August and are anticipating price stabilization for feed barley.
Global prices are also declining
Meanwhile, Russia continues to export grain through the Black Sea ports of Novorossiysk and Taman, which supports global market supply.
As a result, prices for Russian grain have decreased by approximately $6–8/ton FOB.
According to Agritel, last week:
- French feed barley depreciated by 8.9% to €203/ton FOB Rouen (approximately $234/ton);
- Spring malting barley lost 4.2%, falling to €238/ton FOB Creil.
Consequently, the market has fully reversed the price increases observed the previous week.
The market remains dependent on the situation at the ports
Market participants note that further price dynamics will directly depend on the ability to restore stable operations of Ukrainian seaports and export logistics. For now, uncertainty regarding shipments is hindering trader activity and continuing to put pressure on domestic prices.